Energy & Industry Desk
Following the federal government’s swift mediation of the Dangote–PENGASSAN dispute, Nigeria’s oil industry is regaining traction.
Group Chief Executive Officer of the NNPCL, Bayo Ojulari, said the country recorded a monthly average of 1.68 million barrels per day (mbpd) in September — a milestone not seen since 2020.
Ojulari briefed State House journalists after meeting President Tinubu, noting that Nigeria’s upstream outlook had brightened.
“Our goal is to reach 1.8 million barrels by December,” he said. “This is achievable given our maintenance turnaround, renewed investor interest, and production efficiency.”
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THE RECOVERY BY NUMBERS
- Current production: 1.68 mbpd — highest in 5 years.
- Target: 1.8 mbpd by December 2025.
- Gas output: 7 BCF per day, powering local industries.
- Industrial strike caused temporary loss of 200,000 barrels/day.
- Power generation dropped by 1.2 MW during crisis, now stabilised.
- Analysts forecast gradual climb to 2 mbpd by 2027 under Tinubu’s directive.
WHY IT MATTERS
Nigeria’s oil rebound isn’t just about barrels — it’s about restoring credibility.
After years of underperformance and theft, production is climbing again. The PENGASSAN strike, though costly, spurred transparency talks between NNPCL, Dangote Group, and labour unions.
Ojulari confirmed that “95 percent of deferred production” from the shutdown had been recovered, with full normalisation expected by mid-October.
Security collaborations involving Tantita Security Services and the Navy have slashed oil theft by 90 percent — from 102,000 barrels per day in 2021 to 9,600 in 2025 — a turnaround industry watchers call “the quiet revolution.”
BEYOND OUTPUT
The improvement in production has eased fiscal pressure, raised foreign inflows, and strengthened naira liquidity.
International oil companies, once cautious, are returning with fresh investments.
Indigenous players like Seplat, Waltersmith, and First E&P are also expanding operations, capitalising on the government’s renewed enforcement of the “Drill or Drop” policy.
“For the first time in years, the upstream scene looks sustainable,” said analyst Eniola Akinkuotu. “Investors can plan without fear of sabotage or abrupt shutdowns.”
💰 WHO GAINS FROM THE REBOUND
- Winners: NNPCL, local operators, federal revenue, and logistics contractors benefiting from renewed field activity.
- Losers: Oil thieves and illegal refiners losing ground to tighter surveillance.
- Watch Zone: Gas commercialisation programme — $2.5bn investment pipeline via the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP).
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