1) The Allegation That Changed Everything
Rivers State’s crisis escalated sharply after a faction of the Peoples Democratic Party accused Governor Siminalayi Fubara of breaching a Tinubu-brokered peace deal and quietly realigning political loyalties.
According to the faction,led by Dr Nname Ewor the alleged agreement—said to have been reached during federal mediation—was meant to stabilise the state after months of paralysis. Instead, they claim, the outcome has been a slow but decisive shift that risks moving the PDP’s mandate in Rivers toward the ruling party.
According to the Dr. Nname Ewor faction, the alleged terms included:
- A commitment that Fubara would not seek a second term
- Reinstatement of specific traditional and political figures
- Restructuring of key executive appointments
The Presidency has not confirmed the claims. The governor has not endorsed this version. But the allegation alone has reframed Rivers from a state-level feud into a national political flashpoint.
2) Wike’s 2027 Declaration: ‘We’re Collapsing Structures’
The claims landed as Nyesom Wike publicly declared that his camp is collapsing political structures in Rivers to secure victory for President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
The statement, made during a New Year visit to Abua/Odual, was not rhetorical. It signalled a complete political divorce from Fubara and a full-throated alignment with the APC’s national project.
In effect, Wike reframed Rivers as a frontline state—no longer an internal PDP problem, but a proving ground for Tinubu’s re-election calculus.
3) A State at War With Itself: Institutions Under Strain
As political camps hardened, institutions followed.
The Rivers State House of Assembly—already split—entered open confrontation with the executive. In a symbolic rupture, lawmakers returned ₦100,000 credited to their personal accounts, branding the transfers unsolicited and unconstitutional.
The episode underscored a deeper truth: governance had given way to survival politics. Budget passage, appointments and policy execution became secondary to positioning and leverage.
Emergency measures, declared and later lifted, did little to heal the rupture. They merely exposed how fragile the state’s democratic machinery had become.
4) How We Got Here —
Rivers did not arrive here overnight.
Wike exited office in 2023 having installed Fubara as successor, expecting continuity. Instead, disagreements over appointments, legislative control and executive independence widened into a full rupture.
What followed was a familiar Nigerian pattern—godfather politics colliding with an incumbent’s attempt to consolidate authority—except this time, the collision occurred in one of Nigeria’s most strategic states, with federal power watching closely.
5.The Stakes for Fubara
For Fubara, the options are narrowing.
Survival now hinges on whether he can:
- Rebuild a loyal political base outside Wike’s orbit,
- Retain institutional legitimacy amid legislative hostility, and
- Convince sceptical power brokers that he remains politically viable.
Failure on any front risks turning a sitting governor into a lame duck long before 2027.
6) Why Rivers Matters Beyond Rivers
Rivers is not just another battleground:
- It is a major oil and revenue hub.
- It shapes national party arithmetic.
- It tests the durability of the Tinubu–Wike alliance.
- It signals how far federal power can—or will—reshape subnational politics.
If Rivers flips decisively, the ripple effects will be felt across opposition ranks nationwide.
7) What Happens Next: Three Scenarios
Reconciliation — Possible only through renewed federal mediation; currently unlikely.
Realignment — Fubara survives by forging new alliances, possibly at the cost of party cohesion.
Rupture — Rivers becomes a proxy battlefield for 2027, with institutions as weapons.
Each path carries national consequences.
Why This Deep Dive Matters
This is no longer about personalities. It is about mandates, institutions, and the rules of political engagement as Nigeria edges toward 2027. Rivers is the warning sign—and the test case.
This is IDNN. Independent. Digital. Uncompromising.