From Empty Coffers to a “Fivefold” Treasury
House Speaker Tajudeen Abbas stunned the National Assembly when he announced that President Tinubu’s tax reforms would expand the federal budget fivefold — and that the windfall would bankroll a four-year plan to crush insecurity. The pledge, delivered as the government presses for broader revenue collection, frames the reform as a fiscal lifeline and a national security strategy rolled into one.
Revenue Remedy — Bold Promise or Political Soundbite?
Abbas’ projection reads like a manifesto: more taxpayers, fewer leaks, massive public investment. But economists and fiscal experts are split. Proponents say widening the tax base is overdue — Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio has long lagged peers, leaving social services and security chronically underfunded. Critics point to implementation risks: will new revenues be collected or siphoned off through graft and bureaucracy?
“If you double collection but fail to fix governance and procurement, the money won’t translate into security,” warns a fiscal analyst. The question is not only how much is raised, but how cleanly the funds flow to frontline security needs.
How Abbas Plans to Turn Taxes into Troops and Tech
Abbas outlined quick priorities:
- Beefed-up funding for the military and police equipment, including aerial surveillance and logistics;
- Community protection programmes and rapid response units in hotspot states;
- Investment in social safety nets and jobs to address the root causes of criminality.
The implied model is revenue → targeted security spending → restored economic activity. If delivered transparently, the approach could create a virtuous circle: safer communities attract investment, which broadens the tax base further.
Can FIRS and the System Deliver at Scale?
Execution is the linchpin. The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) must expand registration, digitise collections, and close leak points — all while avoiding heavy-handed crackdowns that push informal earners further underground. Corruption and weak procurement systems remain the biggest obstacles. Civil society groups demand independent oversight and clear audit trails for security spending.
International parallels exist: countries that coupled tax reform with governance reforms often saw durable gains. But history also shows that revenue without accountability fuels resentment and waste.
Political Ripple: Reform, Resistance, and the 2027 Clock
Abbas’ promise is political ammunition for the ruling party and a provocation for opponents. If taxes genuinely fund visible security wins before 2027, the administration will gain a potent narrative. If not, the reforms risk being framed as a burdensome squeeze on citizens with little to show.
Impact Snapshot
- Budget: Potentially transformative if collections scale and leakages fall.
- Security: More funds for hardware and human capacity — conditional on procurement integrity.
- Public Trust: Hinges on transparent, audited spending and measurable results.
This is IDNN. Independent. Digital. Uncompromising.