Mathematically Better. Economically the Same.
Byline: IDNN Economy Desk
Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio dropped from 52.1% to 39.4% after a comprehensive GDP rebasing — but analysts aren’t clapping.
The National Bureau of Statistics now calculates GDP using 2019 as base year, expanding economic scope to capture fintech, gig work, and informal trade. That raised GDP to ₦379.17tn.
But public debt remains ₦149.39tn — meaning while the ratio looks better, the interest, repayments, and external exposure have all worsened.
False Comfort?
“This is not fiscal improvement. It’s statistical recalibration,” warned economist Bisi Sobowale.
Debt servicing costs are near unsustainable levels, consuming over 90% of revenue in 2024. The naira’s fall has ballooned dollar-denominated debt, and new borrowings remain high.
IMF and World Bank thresholds may look safe — but Nigeria is walking a thin line between solvency and debt distress.
“Debt-to-GDP is a vanity metric if revenue’s broken,” Sobowale added