Nigeria’s business activity expanded for a fourth straight month in September, according to reports citing Central Bank of Nigeria surveys, but household confidence deteriorated sharply as consumers remained worried about prices, personal finances and major purchases.
Nigeria’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 53.0 points in September from 52.7 in August, according to reports based on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s September PMI survey.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
But a separate CBN household survey presented a sharply different picture.
The Overall Consumer Sentiments Index fell to -18.7 points from -9.9 in August, indicating that households became considerably more pessimistic about economic conditions, their finances and prices.
The two readings expose an important economic divide: businesses are reporting more activity while consumers remain under pressure.
Industry strengthens as services and agriculture expand
September’s PMI improvement was supported by stronger industrial activity.
The Industry PMI climbed to 52.0 points from 50.6, recording a second consecutive month of expansion.
Services remained above the expansion threshold at 53.2, while agriculture recorded a PMI of 53.1.
The figures indicate that expansion was not confined to a single sector.
But the business data also contained a warning.
The composite input-price index reportedly increased by 0.8 points, while the output-price index declined by 0.5 points.
That combination suggests businesses faced renewed cost pressure even as the pace at which they increased selling prices weakened.
For companies with limited ability to pass higher costs to customers, that could squeeze margins even while activity expands.
Households see a different economy
For households, September was significantly weaker.
The CBN’s reported Economic Conditions Index stood at -21.5, while the Family Financial Situation Index fell to -23.9 and the Family Income Sentiments Index stood at -10.5.
Price anxiety also intensified.
The average price-sentiment index rose to 33.5 points from 23.0 in August, while a majority of respondents reportedly said faster price increases would weaken the economy.
Food remained households’ biggest spending priority, ahead of transportation, household goods, education and utilities.
Sentiment towards major purchases was deeply negative.
Reported sentiment towards buying houses stood at -68.2, motor vehicles at -67.3, investments at -50.7 and consumer durables at -49.5.
The figures help explain why an improvement in business activity does not automatically translate into stronger consumer demand.
Inflation is easing, but prices remain a pressure point
The divergence comes even as official inflation has moderated.
Nigeria’s headline inflation stood at 15.39% in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The Central Bank also cut its Monetary Policy Rate to 23% in September, from 26.5%, as monetary authorities began easing after an extended period of tight policy.
But slower inflation does not mean prices are falling.
Inflation measures the rate at which prices increase. When inflation slows, food, transport, rent and other essential goods can still cost substantially more than households previously paid.
That distinction helps explain how improving business indicators can coexist with weak consumer confidence.
Business expansion has not yet become household confidence
The September surveys therefore tell two different stories at the same time.
Businesses reported another month of expanding activity, with industry strengthening and services and agriculture remaining above the contraction threshold.
Households, however, reported worsening confidence, weak appetite for major purchases and continued concern about prices and personal finances.
Survey respondents reportedly expect sentiment to improve over coming months, with the overall consumer index projected at -8.7 over the next month, -0.4 over three months and 7.1 over six months.
Those figures are expectations, not outcomes.
For policymakers and businesses, the central question is whether expanding production and commercial activity eventually translate into stronger household purchasing power — or whether weak consumer finances begin to constrain demand.
For now, the September surveys show business activity expanding.
They do not show that Nigerian households are feeling the same improvement.