The New Paradox — A Country That Looks Strong on Paper but Feels Weak in Pocket
In the official corridors of Abuja and Lagos, Nigeria is finally the comeback story.
The Central Bank is celebrating international rehabilitation. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has removed the country from its grey list. Moody’s and Fitch are smiling again.
But in the factory floors of Ikeja and Aba, machines hum to emptiness.
Inventories pile up. Power bills crush profit. And millions of consumers now ration bread and transport fare the way governments ration foreign exchange.
Welcome to Nigeria’s Split Economy — where credibility is imported, but confidence is still missing in the marketplace.
The FATF Exit — A Return to Global Respectability
When the FATF officially delisted Nigeria from its grey list in October 2025, it sounded like music to bankers’ ears. For two years, Nigeria had been black-flagged for weak anti-money laundering controls and porous financial oversight.
Now, the CBN says that stigma is gone. Acting communications director Hakama Ali described the decision as “a clear affirmation of reform discipline.”
The FATF plenary in Paris endorsed Nigeria’s 19-point compliance plan — covering beneficial ownership, terrorist financing, and financial transparency — leading to delisting.
The IMF followed with validation, noting “improved reserve adequacy” and “policy credibility.”
Compliance as Currency
For banks, the implications are immediate:
- Reduced scrutiny on cross-border payments.
- Cheaper compliance costs (down by 20%).
- Easier access to correspondent banking.
For the government, it’s a reputational rebirth.
For investors, it’s the return of trust.
Yet the irony lingers — Nigeria’s credibility is once again defined abroad before being felt at home.
The Dangote Effect — Ambition as a National Statement
If the FATF reform is the story of policy discipline, the Dangote Refinery expansion is the story of private audacity.
At a briefing in Lagos, Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, announced plans to double the refinery’s output from 650,000 to 1.4 million barrels per day.
“This expansion is not just about capacity; it is about confidence — in our people, our government, and our continent,” Dangote said.
From Importer to Supplier
The $5 billion project, financed through an Afreximbank-led facility and partial public listing, will elevate Nigeria to the rank of global refining powerhouses alongside India’s Jamnagar facility.
Already, the refinery meets nearly half of Nigeria’s gasoline needs and exports to West Africa. Expansion to 1.4m bpd could make Nigeria the region’s fuel provider — a geopolitical asset in crude diplomacy.
The Dangote Multiplier
- $55 billion projected annual revenue post-expansion.
- 30,000 direct and indirect jobs.
- $12 billion in annual forex savings.
The plant’s transition to Euro VI standard fuel means cleaner output and a rebranding of Nigerian oil as globally compliant — a symbolic victory for an oil-dependent economy seeking green legitimacy.
Refining the National Story
Dangote’s refinery now stands as Nigeria’s parallel CBN — not minting currency, but minting credibility.
Yet, just like the FATF win, its glow illuminates the macro picture, not the micro struggle.
The Ground Reality — Manufacturing in Freefall
While the boardrooms toast policy victories, Nigeria’s real economy is running out of breath.
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) says the value of unsold goods has jumped by nearly 88% — from ₦1.14 trillion in 2023 to ₦2.14 trillion in 2024.
Factories in Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha are running below half capacity.
Segun Ajayi-Kadir, MAN’s Director-General, was blunt:
“Consumers now spend more than 70% of their income on energy and transport. The middle class is vanishing. Demand has collapsed.”
Factories Without Buyers
This isn’t just inflation — it’s exhaustion.
The naira’s devaluation has made raw materials expensive, while weak consumer spending has made finished goods unsellable.
Government agencies, meanwhile, still favour imports.
Ajayi-Kadir lamented:
“Even ministries buy imported furniture when local factories are idle. It’s a betrayal of policy consistency.”
The Numbers Behind the Pain
- Industrial investment fell 35% to ₦658.8 billion in 2024.
- Employment across key sectors dropped by 18%.
- Capacity utilization now hovers around 47%.
The Invisible Recession
While GDP figures show mild growth, Nigeria’s productive base is shrinking.
Manufacturing is caught between expensive inputs and poor sales — a “profitless recovery” that mirrors the national paradox: stability without liquidity.
The Split — A Nation Running on Two Speeds
The FATF exit and Dangote’s mega-project represent Nigeria’s external optimism.
The MAN report represents internal fatigue.
One half of the economy is performing for the world — impressing investors, lenders, and agencies.
The other half is pleading for oxygen — small businesses, factories, and households.
This duality defines the Tinubu-era economy:
A top-down story of policy restoration, shadowed by a bottom-up reality of consumption erosion.
Policy Meets the Street
Economists call it “asymmetric recovery.”
The elite sectors — finance, oil, telecoms — are consolidating power.
The labour-intensive sectors — manufacturing, retail, agriculture — are shrinking.
It’s the same dynamic that drove the protests of 2024 and the union unrest of 2025.
The Central Bank’s fight for global trust is valid, but for millions of Nigerians, the only grey list that matters is the one between hunger and survival.
The Outlook — Can the Confidence Translate?
To sustain its global momentum, Nigeria needs domestic transmission mechanisms:
- Energy reforms that lower production costs.
- Credit schemes that revive MSMEs.
- Consumption stimulus to reawaken demand.
Without these, the nation’s FATF win will remain cosmetic — a victory without velocity.
In short, confidence abroad must become consumption at home.
The Cost of Disconnect
Every economy pays for its paradox.
Nigeria’s bill is already showing: capital inflows are up, but real sector jobs are down; rating upgrades come alongside power cuts; refinery profits rise while household purchasing power sinks.
“Nigeria is credible again,” an economist told IDNN.
“But it is not yet comfortable.”
This is IDNN. Independent. Digital. Uncompromising.