Succession Countdown Begins
Nigeria’s electoral umpire is set for a pivotal transition. With Professor Mahmood Yakubu’s second term as Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) expiring in November, President Bola Tinubu is said to be strongly considering Professor Joash Amupitan, SAN, as the next man to steer the commission.
Amupitan, a professor of law and Deputy Vice-Chancellor of the University of Jos, is renowned for his expertise in company law, corporate governance, and evidence law. Born in 1967 in Kogi State, he has over three decades of academic and legal experience, earning the prestigious SAN rank in 2014.
Tinubu’s Pick: Reformist or Loyalist?
Tinubu’s administration has staked much on fiscal and political reforms. Choosing Amupitan signals a shift towards a legal technocrat with academic depth. But critics ask: will he act as a reformist in the mould of Yakubu or a loyalist ensuring Tinubu’s political survival into 2027?
INEC’s credibility is under strain after disputes over the 2023 general elections. Civil society argues that only an unimpeachable figure can restore public trust. For Tinubu, however, the calculus may also involve political loyalty at a time when opposition parties are regrouping.
A Legal Heavyweight with a Teaching Legacy
Amupitan’s CV is formidable:
- Best graduating law student at University of Jos (1987).
- Over 70 published academic papers.
- Dean of Law at UniJos, member of Vision 2020 governance group.
- Pro-Chancellor and Council Chairman of Joseph Ayo Babalola University.
He is respected for mentoring generations of lawyers and judges, and his tenure as UniJos Deputy VC has been marked by administrative reforms and strict adherence to rules.
Ripple Effects: 2027 on the Horizon
The stakes could not be higher. By the time Amupitan would settle into office, Nigeria will already be gearing toward the 2027 polls.
- Credibility Question: Can INEC rebuild public faith in its results transmission system?
- Logistics Nightmare: INEC’s history of delays, ballot shortages, and technical glitches still haunts voters.
- Political Heat: With PDP divided over Jonathan’s speculated comeback and Labour Party battling internal crises, the neutrality of the referee is more crucial than ever.
Global Parallels
Across democracies, electoral commissions are only as credible as their leadership. Ghana’s Electoral Commission, Kenya’s IEBC, and South Africa’s IEC have all been tested in recent cycles. Analysts warn that Nigeria’s INEC must avoid further erosion of confidence or risk dragging the region’s biggest democracy into crisis.
Reform, Resistance, and the Tinubu Factor
Civil society organisations are already preparing to scrutinise Tinubu’s appointment. Groups like YIAGA Africa and SERAP insist the new chairman must demonstrate independence from day one.
But the president’s political calculus cannot be ignored. A loyal INEC chair may reduce uncertainty for the APC in 2027, yet a compromised umpire could trigger chaos. As one analyst put it: “Tinubu faces a paradox: appoint a loyalist and risk legitimacy, or appoint a reformist and risk his own hold on power.”
Impact Snapshot
- Electoral Reform: Amupitan’s academic record suggests a focus on system integrity.
- Political Climate: Appointment will be seen as a signal of Tinubu’s democratic intent.
- Public Trust: Citizens remain wary after 2023’s controversies.
